06 / Methods

How this site works

Where the numbers come from

Every series comes from the agency that publishes it, through that agency's own data service. Code reads each value and the page shows every digit the agency published; nobody retypes or rounds a number by hand.

How often it updates

A scheduled job checks every source each hour through the weekday business day, Eastern time, and once a day on weekends. It saves new data only when an agency has published something new, so the "Data last changed" stamp on each page is the last time an agency published a new or revised number.

What counts as an unusual move

Each series is measured against its own history over the last years. Monthly and quarterly series compare one release with the one before it. Daily and weekly series compare with about a month earlier, because day-to-day moves are mostly noise. A change or more standard deviations from that series' normal change gets the "Unusual move" badge. For monthly and quarterly series the badge stays up for days after the release.

The role toggle on the Scorecard uses the same rule. Each role watches a short list of series tied to decisions that role makes, and a role is flagged when something on its list moves.

What gets held before it shows up

A new reading goes through a check before it reaches this site. It is held if it is not a usable number, is dated in the future, is zero or negative ( can legitimately go below zero), moves or more standard deviations from normal, or revises an earlier value by more than %. A held reading stays on record but off the site until I have looked at it against the agency's release and cleared it. While a reading is held, pages show the last value that passed, and the Updates page says why.

Revisions

Agencies revise their numbers after the first release. This site keeps every version. Charts show the current value for each period, and the Updates page lists each revision with the old value, the new value and the date it was noticed.

History before launch

Live tracking started on . History was loaded in one pass at launch (back to for most series, and to for the longest), so it shows each agency's current values for those periods, not what was first reported at the time. On the charts, a dot marks each reading recorded live.

Licensing and credit

Data from U.S. federal agencies is public domain, and every chart still names its source. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and effective federal funds rate appear under the New York Fed's Terms of Use, with the New York Fed's credit line on every chart and tile that shows them.

Proprietary indexes (ABC, Dodge, AIA, ISM, Drewry and private cost indexes) are never stored or charted here. When the bulletin cites one, it gives the headline number, the date and a link to the publisher.

Using the data

Each series page has a CSV download of what its chart shows. If you use it, credit the agency.

Privacy

Page views are counted with Vercel Web Analytics, which sets no cookies and stores no personal information. Links from the newsletter carry tags that say which issue and which reader role they came from, so I can see which sections people use.

Who builds this

I'm Cain Menard. I spent eight years in construction operations and consulting, starting on jobsites. This site is the data behind The Look-Ahead, the weekly section of my newsletter, Means and Methods. Questions, corrections or a series you want added: info@cainmenard.com.